The Deviant Standard

Today’s persistent strength has forces us to give more weight to the possibility of an upward retrace that reaches much higher than where we are today.  We had always considered this possibility, but had not given it much weight until today.  Evidence suggest that we’ll see at least a small down move soon, and the development of that move may help us to discern more about the retrace.  Read the details in today’s issue of  TheDeviantStandard(PDF).

Taking out 10,314 caused some problems with the count, but it’s not as if we weren’t anticipating the possibility.  We lay several possible scenarios from here and establish the guideposts we’ll use to assess which one develops in the medium-term in the latest issue of The Deviant Standard (PDF).  Whatever those moves are, we still expect the broader move to be down.

We were wrong about our outlook for today — well, partly wrong.  We had specific plans for what to do if we exceeded Wednesday’s highs, even though we were expecting things to go lower.  Nevertheless, days like this should raise many questions.  In an abbreviated issue tonight (PDF) we look at some of those questions as we prepare for Friday.  We’ll have more comprehensive analysis over the weekend.  Even if we don’t know what will happen tomorrow, we do know that fortune favors the prepared mind.  Trade prepared.

Our 11:11 top call was a tad early, but the same technique found the actual top and both were good trades.  Only one was profitable, but both were good.  In today’s issue of The Deviant Standard (PDF) we have an exposition of the techniques that workd, an update on the additional downside we’ve been expecting and great setups to watch for the model portfolio tomorrow.

Figuring out when we might get our correction was the big rock in the road.  Now that it’s been moved out of the way, we can see the little rocks that block our path.  You know… trivial questions such as, how far the correction will go.  My limited thoughts on the subject in today’s issue of The Deviant Standard (PDF).

Well…  Monday did little to answer the question of when we’ll get a counter-trend bounce or whether we’ve already seen it.  However, it did help reinforce our stated belief that the dominant direction is down.  We’ll keep at it by looking for the setups that are working in this environment while we wait for the big wave 3 to show itself.  As always, market outlook and new trade ideas are in the daily issue of The Deviant Standard (PDF).

Our weekend supplement (PDF) outlined the case supporting our view that the general price trend for US stocks is now down.  Our model portfolio remains completely short, although we took some partial profits on Friday.  The short-term Elliott Wave count remains murky so we have little confidence that we know what will happen intraday on Monday or Tuesday.  However, we’re confident enough in the general trend to be looking to put our profits back to work on the short side.   The game plan and stock picks are all in the Monday prep edition of The Deviant Standard (PDF).