As mentioned earlier, I’ll be out of the office for a bit this evening. I’ll put together an update, but it may be abbreviated. In the mean time, I have the following random thoughts on the market to aid in preparation for Friday.
The market let us know early on that our count was busted. The move invalidated our count that suggested that (ii) was complete. That raises two possibilities:
- (ii) will complete higher; or
- our broader count is wrong.
The case we laid out in our Weekend Supplement remains convincing and suggests downside. That doesn’t mean it’s right, just that it’s a compelling argument. We need to spend some time this weekend reviewing alternative broader counts. If wave (ii) is going to end at some level above Wednesday’s highs, Thursday’s high of the day immediately prior to the close might be the place. Several reasons for this have been covered in blog comments earlier in the day. To summarize:
- 10,184 is a key FibGrid level.
- At the lowest level we can count a complete move into that level.
Arguing against:
- The large opening gap doesn’t allow us to count the first leg of the move up.
- Could be complete doesn’t mean it is complete.
- We didn’t see the divergences one would expect at the peak.
I haven’t yet had a chance to run my individual stock scans. That might give some additional insight.
We’ll definitely make portfolio updates later this evening. Several names stopped out today and our GS entry triggered. Hopefully there will also be a chance to try and reconcile technical indicators with wave count in order to prepare for tomorrow. However, it seems like we’re near a place where we either have to begin turning down or more upside is ahead in the short term, either as a larger correction or a more long-term bullish count.
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